Research

In progress


Search Frictions and Liquidity in Farmland Markets

(Last updated: April 2, 2026)
Abstract

Farmland liquidity remains a critical issue in Japan's agricultural sector, given the growing need for farmland accumulation and consolidation among leading farmers. This study proposes a farmland liquidity indicator based on search theory, integrating the determinants of farmland transactions examined separately by previous studies into a unified framework, treating them as market frictions. Using nonparametric methods, we estimate the matching function that underlies the indicator, along with the potential supply of farmland available for rental. The results show the extent of frictions in the farmland rental market and how potential demand-supply balance shapes liquidity.


Benefits of the Global Food Crisis for Rice Farming in Africa: A New Growth Accounting Approach

with Satoru Okonogi and Tatsuya Ogura. (Last updated: March 7, 2023)
Abstract

This study explores the drivers of rapid rice production growth after 2008 in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) using a new growth accounting framework. The new method allows us to identify contributions of not only changes in input quantities but also the growth of input-embedded and input-free productivities. To investigate the effects of the global food crisis, we anlyze the effects of changes in rice prices on the productivity growth. The empirical results show the following findings: i) land and fertilizer productivities drastically improved in 2008; ii) the rice production frontier remarkably extended in 2008; iii) fertilizer quantity got an important growth driver after 2008; iv) the growth patterns were different between traditionally rice-producing countries and non-rice countries. These results imply that the global food crisis improved the profitability of rice production, and it triggered the expansion of rice production in SSA through the adoption of modern technologies.



Published papers


Learning Effect as a Benefit of Resource Concentration to Leading Farmers: Aiming at Realizing Stable Food Supply in Japan

Journal of Economic Structures(forthcoming)
Abstract

Recently, an international environment revealed the risk of import dependency and required improvement in the domestic production of agricultural products for a stable food supply in Japan. On the other hand, at ordinary times, domestic agricultural products are increasingly exposed to competition in international markets. Since 1993, when the Act on Promotion of Improvement of Agricultural Management Foundation was enforced, fostering efficient and stable agricultural management that can withstand international competition has been a policy objective. The Japanese government has supported certified farmers, acknowledged as leading farmers in the region by municipalities, by various measures. However, why does such policy support for certified farmers contribute to strengthening the competitiveness of agriculture and making it a growth industry? In this paper, we theoretically show that the concentration of resources by policy on certified farmers improves agricultural productivity when certified farmers are regarded as the leraning sector and has a productivity-spillover effect in the agricultural industry, and demonstrate the extent of the spillover effect through TFP growth rate decomposition using a cost function analysis. The analysis shows that such spillover effects increased the productivity growth rate of rice farming by about 0.27% on average nationwide.


Limited Spatial Arbitrage in Retail Egg Markets: A Threshold Price Transmission Approach

Norin Seisaku Kenkyu(forthcoming, in Japanese)
Abstract

Amid growing international concern about the resilience of the food supply chain, retail egg prices in Japan—long regarded as an "Honored Student of Prices" for maintaining nominal price stability—have risen sharply in recent years. This study examines whether such price surges reflect low resilience in Japan's retail egg markets by analyzing price transmission using the threshold price transmission models, with a focus on the role of horizontal food supply chains. Based on our empirical analyses, we find numerous cases of interregional price transmission that are inconsistent with smooth spatial arbitrage, including regional pairs with no stable long-run relationship, negative price transmission, and price adjustments involving deviations from stationary relationships following shocks. These findings indicate that price transmission consistent with efficient interregional arbitrage is limited. Accordingly, Japan's retail egg markets—where in-region transactions predominate—can be regarded as having low resilience to large supply shocks, in that smooth interregional demand-supply adjustments are constrained.


A Study on the Uniqueness of Agricultural Finance and Equilibrium Credit Rationing: Mainly about the Relation to the Liquidity of the Farmland Market

with Katuhiro Saito. Noson Kenkyu 139: 16-30. 2024. (in Japanese) [link]
Abstract

In this paper, we will reconsider an agricultural finance theory that has been previously examined under the assumption of small-scale farming, taking into consideration two points: the fact that today's agricultural policy finance targets leading agricultural management and how it is viewed in light of the theory of information economics. Reevaluating the uniqueness of agricultural finance in a country like Japan, where government involvement in the agricultural finance market is significant, and since the mid-1970s, investment by individual agricultural management has stagnated, provides new insights. Based on the theory of costly state verification, which is one of the mechanisms for credit rationing, it is shown that in agricultural finance, collateral such as agricultural products and farmland imposes costs on lenders in terms of realizing their value, indicating that there are issues in agricultural finance that do not necessarily depend on small-scale farming. This provides prospects for research, such as the relationship between land market liquidity and credit rationing, that will offer valueable insights not limited to Japan.


Continue or cease? A method to identify credit constraints under policy intervention and an implication for policy efficiency

with Katsuhiro Saito. Applied Economics 54(58): 6716-6725. 2022. [link]
Abstract

In this study, we consider the problem whereby policy intervention in the financial market might hide the existence of credit constraints. We develop a theoretical model of the representative borrower utilizing credit from private banks and a governmental financial institution. Using the exogenous change in the transaction technology for borrowing from the governmental institution, we can identify the existence of credit constraints even if the policy remains in the market. Additionally, our model shows that the inefficiency of policy intervention is larger when we consider the borrower's choice of optimal effort.


The Impact of the Expansion of Branch Network of Policy Finance on the Primary Sector's Labor Productivity: A Macro Data Analysis

with Katsuhiro Saito. Journal of Rural Economics 93(3): 277-282. 2021. (in Japanese) [link]
Abstract

The objective of this study is to analyze the effect of the expansion of the branch network of policy finance on the primary sector economy, using aggregated macro economic data. The findings are as follows. First, if we assume the branch network expansion affected only certain prefectures, such prefectures raised labor productivity compared to other prefectures. On the other hand, if we assume the branch network expansion had an influence on all prefectures, then the prefectures where the ratio of certified farmers was higher decreased labor productivity more. If the latter is correct, it indicates an inefficiency of policy finance.



Presentations


伏木優介「農地市場の探索摩擦と農地流動性-農地市場のマッチング関数推定-」日本農業経済学会2026年度大会.鳥取大学.2026年3月.
伏木優介「農地貸借市場のサーチ理論-農地流動化に関する統合的分析枠組みの構築-」TEA(Theoretical Economics and Agriculture)会.鳥取大学.2026年3月.
Fushiki, Y. "The Cowbell Effect from the Governmental Financial Institution to Private Banks." The 17th Forum for Agricultural Policy Research in North East Asia. Anhui Hotel, Hefei, Anhui. September 2025.
Fushiki, Y. and T. Murakami. "Regional Integration or Segmentation in Japan's Egg Markets: A Nonparametric Analysis of Price Transmission." XVIII European Association of Agricultural Economists Congress. The University of Bonn. August 2025.
伏木優介「担い手に対する潜在的供給農地の推定-農地市場のマッチング関数推定-」TEA (Theoretical Economics and Agriculture) 会.日本大学.2025年3月.
Fushiki, Y., T. Murakami and N. Ito. "How Retailers Pass Cost-up on Prices? Sales Frequency as A Passing-on Strategy." 69th Annual Conference of the Australasian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society. Grand Chancellor Hotel, Brisbane. February 2025.
Fushiki, Y. and K. Saito. "Learning effect as a benefit of resource concentration to leading farmers: Aiming at realizing stable food supply in Japan." The 8th International Conference on Economic Structures. Kindai University, Osaka. March 2024.
Fushiki, Y. and K. Saito. "Diffusion of Agricultural Technology under Liquidity Constraint." The 11th ASAE International Conference. Aoyama Gakuin University, Tokyo. March 2023. (The third prize of the Best Paper Award)
Okonogi, S., Y. Fushiki, and T. Ogura. "Benefits of the Global Food Crisis for Rice Farming in Africa: A New Growth Accounting Approach." The 11th ASAE International Conference. Aoyama Gakuin University, Tokyo. March 2023.
伏木優介「担い手農家のラーニング効果と政策金融の意義-費用関数分析による稲作のTFP成長率-」 第64回東北農業分析研究会.東北大学.2022年7月.
伏木優介・齋藤勝宏「農業政策金融が稲作農家の労働生産性成長に与える影響の分析-米生産費調査を用いた費用関数分析から-」 日本農業経済学会2022年度大会.オンライン.2022年3月.
Fushiki, Y. and K. Saito. "The Externality Effects of Policy Finance on Japanese Agricultural Production." International Virtual Conference of Sahmyook University. Online. November 2021.
伏木優介・齋藤勝宏「公庫支店網の拡大が農林水産業労働生産性へ与えた影響-マクロデータ分析-」 日本農業経済学会2021年度大会.オンライン.2021年3月.